Thursday, November 9, 2017
Ross McCullough
AN EXPECTED decline in Opotiki’s population is expected to be reversed and numbers could grow by more than 2 percent a year, according to a new report.
The report, titled Opotiki District Population and Rateable Assessment Projections, prepared by consultants Martin Jenkins, was presented at the Opotiki District Council meeting on Tuesday and is said to have significant implications for the long-term revitalisation of the Opotiki district.
Martin Jenkins provided the 26-page report to estimate population growth in the district over the coming decade as part of the Long-Term Plan process.
Its report considered a wide range of factors, including Statistics NZ scenarios-projections based on births, deaths and migration, primary school rolls, number of building consent applications and from conversations with stakeholders and businesses.
Mayor John Forbes said historical factors indicated the Opotiki population should be shrinking over the next 10 years, if only by a handful or so each year.
But when delving into the potential for economic growth in the coming decade from the report, he said it painted a different picture.
The paper looked at the growth that the aquaculture industry is already achieving, as well as the growing opportunities and jobs in the kiwifruit and manuka industries.
“Together these add up to significant population growth,” Mr Forbes said.
Martin Jenkins had provided similar information in advance of the previous 10-year plan, but the new report notes the population growth assumptions have increased significantly since then.
This was because of developments, including the harbour redevelopment and associated aquaculture processing, and primary sector growth in the kiwifruit and manuka areas.
The new report had taken a conservative approach, leaving out possible growth through the Treaty Settlement for Whakatohea iwi, along with growth in tourism and other economic development opportunities.
Using this approach, council finance and corporate services group manager Bevan Gray said a population growth rate in Opotiki of 2.1 percent a year, from next year through to 2028, was possible. This would mean a total population increase of 2182 people over the 10 years.
“This is a growing and prospering Opotiki and one we have been working towards for a long time,” Mr Forbes said.
He said, following recent work by the Cawthron Institute, there was the possibility of up to 20,000 hectares of aquaculture farming off the Opotiki coast.
This potential for aquaculture development was further borne out in the Opotiki Marine Advisory Group update tabled at Tuesday’s meeting.
In it, Opotiki District Council chief executive Aileen Lawrie said Pakihi Trading Company, owned by Whakatohea, had lodged a consent application for 950 hectares inshore from the existing mussel farm.
And the application had signalled more to come, with a further application expected of 4050ha in the west quadron – more than doubling the area consented for marine farming in the Eastern Bay, and leaving a potential further 16000ha approximately to be explored.
“That puts the development potential at least four times what we originally estimated in terms of area, production, employment, exports and GDP contribution,” Mr Forbes said.
Ms Lawrie said an outcome of the harbour project was the size of the industry and jobs that would be created in the final business case for funding was three to five times greater than first thought.
“It brings with it problems of course, but they are good problems to have.”
Mr Forbes said boots were already on the ground, and council and partners were planning for what would be needed to meet this growth – training, pathways to work, housing and accommodation, infrastructure and services.
“We have been building a solid foundation for this for a long time and it is in the coming years we’ll start seeing the benefits,” he said.